Архив Форумов Its My Page

[dude]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/16/AR2008091602877.html?referrer=emailarticle
Wall Street's Unraveling

By Robert J. Samuelson
Wednesday, September 17, 2008; Page A19

Wall Street as we know it is kaput. It is not just that Merrill Lynch agreed to be purchased by Bank of America or that the legendary investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy or that the insurance giant AIG is floundering. It is not even that these events followed the failure of the investment bank Bear Stearns or the government's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest mortgage lenders. What's really happened is that Wall Street's business model has collapsed.

Greed and fear, which routinely govern financial markets, have seeded this global crisis. Just when it will end isn't clear. What is clear is that its origins lie in the ways that Wall Street -- the giant investment houses, brokerage firms, hedge funds and "private equity" firms -- has changed since 1980. Its present business model has three basic components.

First, financial firms have moved beyond their traditional roles as advisers and intermediaries. Once, major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Lehman worked mainly for their clients. They traded stocks and bonds for major institutional investors (insurance companies, pension funds, mutual funds). They raised capital for companies by underwriting -- selling -- new stocks and bonds for the firms. They provided advice to corporate clients on mergers, acquisitions and spinoffs. All these services earned fees.

Now, most financial firms also invest for themselves. They use partners' or shareholders' money to place bets on stocks, bonds and other securities -- so-called "principal transactions." Merrill and other retail brokers, which once served individual clients, have ventured into investment banking. So have some commercial banks that were barred from doing so until the repeal in 1999 of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933.

Second, Wall Street's compensation is heavily skewed toward annual bonuses, reflecting the profits traders and managers earned in the year. Despite lavish base salaries, bonuses dominate. Managing directors with 15 years' experience can receive bonuses five to 10 times their base salaries of $200,000 to $300,000.

Finally, investment banks rely heavily on borrowed money, called "leverage" in financial lingo. Lehman was typical. In late 2007, it held almost $700 billion in stocks, bonds and other securities. Meanwhile, its shareholders' investment (equity) was about $23 billion. All the rest was supported by borrowings. The "leverage ratio" was 30 to 1.

Leverage can create huge windfalls. Suppose you buy a stock for $100. It goes to $110. You made 10 percent, a decent return. Now suppose you borrowed $90 of the $100. If the price rises to $101, you've made 10 percent on your $10 investment. (Technically, the price has to exceed $101 slightly to cover interest payments.) If it goes to $110, you've doubled your money. Wow.

Once assembled, these components created a manic machine for gambling. Traders and money managers had huge incentives to do whatever would increase short-term profits. Dubious mortgages were packaged into bonds, sold and traded. Investment houses had huge incentives to increase leverage. While the boom continued, government remained aloof. Congress resisted tougher regulation for Fannie and Freddie and permitted them to run leverage ratios that, by plausible calculations, exceeded 60 to 1.

It wasn't that Wall Street's leaders deceived customers or lenders into taking risks that were known to be hazardous. Instead, they concluded that risks were low or nonexistent. They fooled themselves, because the short-term rewards blinded them to the long-term dangers. Inevitably, these surfaced. Mortgages went bad. The powerful logic of high leverage went into reverse. Losses eroded firms' tiny capital bases, raising doubts about their survival. This year, Lehman lost nearly $8 billion in "principal transactions." Otherwise, it was profitable.

How Wall Street restructures itself is as yet unclear. Companies need more capital. Merrill went to Bank of America because commercial banks have lower leverage (about 10 to 1). It seems likely that many thinly capitalized hedge funds will be forced to reduce leverage. Ditto for "private equity" firms. In time, all this may prove beneficial. Financial firms may take fewer stupid and wasteful risks -- at least for a while. Talented and ambitious people may move from finance, where they were attracted by exorbitant pay, into more productive industries.

But the immediate effect may be to damage the rest of the economy. People have already lost their jobs. States and localities, particularly New York City and New Jersey, that depend on Wall Street's profits and payrolls will face further spending cuts. Banks and investment banks may tighten lending standards again and impede any economic recovery. The stock market's swoon may deepen consumers' pessimism, fear and reluctance to spend. There may be more failures of financial firms. It's hard to know, because financial crises resemble wars in one crucial respect: They result from miscalculation.

[dude]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=patrick.net&sid=aJ48_bPSf8F0

Let's Start by Finding Some People to Behead: Michael Lewis

Commentary by Michael Lewis

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- With Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsing, and Merrill Lynch & Co. surrendering, and all hell breaking loose in the financial markets, Bloomberg News sent reporters out to gather some impressions from ordinary non- financial Americans.

Many had no idea what any of it meant but few were happy about it. They sensed they'd just been handed the role of the little fat kid in the game of crack the whip, who, at the start of the game, feels nothing at all but then suddenly finds himself launched headfirst into the neighbor's bushes.

They hadn't suffered yet but were preparing to, and they were perplexed by their inability to figure out who had the idea for this game.

``If I knew more I could find someone to blame,'' said Linda Burke, a 57-year-old service consultant at AT&T in Atlanta, speaking, no doubt, for the American people.

She'll probably never get her hands on the real villains of this piece. They're obscure; their crimes are hard to understand. Who inside Wall Street dreamed up the first subprime-mortgage- backed mezzanine CDO and allowed BBB credit to be laundered through the credit-rating companies and come out the other end as AAA? Who inside the credit-rating companies made the decision to rubber stamp the paper? Who inside Lehman Brothers -- and at all the other Wall Street firms -- fought to get into the business over the objections of saner traders?

This is a pleasant side-effect of Wall Street's complexity. Not only does it enable the firms to hide the risks they run; it allows the people who make fortunes, while at the same time helping destroy vast amounts of capital, to remain essentially unknown to the wider public.

Two Culprits

Even if they were to be somehow dragged out into the square for a shaming, no one would understand what they did. It's impossible to publicly humiliate a derivative.

There are, however, two culprits whose crimes are easy to grasp. I offer them up to Ms. Burke, so she can get to work on her feelings about them.

1) Christopher Cox. He's the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and so has the job of regulating these companies that helped make it possible for every poor American to get a mortgage and are now, as a result, falling apart.

That, in itself, is no reason to blame him. He inherited a broken operation: the SEC has been morally bankrupt for some time now. The people who work for the place -- especially the ones who call the shots -- have for years had a disconcerting habit of leaving their low-paying government jobs regulating Wall Street firms for high-paying ones at those same Wall Street firms.

Systemic Corruption

They are meant to guard against systemic corruption when they are themselves systematically corrupt. It's hard for people who are paid $85,000 a year to police people who are paid $15 million.

Happily, you can still blame Cox for something. He went as far out of his way as he could to enable the brokerage firms by harassing the small group of informed financial people who have been trying to tell the truth to the markets: the short sellers. They bet against the stock price of a company and so have always had a bad reputation with the public. But in this case, they are the closest thing we have to heroes.

A man named David Einhorn is a case study. He runs a hedge fund called Greenlight Capital, which sells short some stocks and buys others. That is, he doesn't just bet against companies but for them, too.

Blaming Shorts

Still, for some time now, he's been standing up in front of large audiences, announcing that he was short Lehman Brothers stock, and then explaining in great detail its dubious accounting practices. The SEC responded by demanding to see his firm's e- mail, hinting darkly that he was part of some conspiracy to drive Lehman Brothers out of business, and generally making him feel that he'd pay a price for telling the truth.

Christopher Cox is probably a nice man who has no real idea what just happened. But for the way he treated people with the nerve to speak the truth to power you should feel free to blame him anyway.

2) The Wall Street CEO.

Stan O'Neal was the chief executive officer of Merrill Lynch, Dick Fuld was the CEO of Lehman Brothers, James Cayne was the CEO of Bear Stearns Cos. Each took home tens of millions of dollars in pay for making the decisions that destroyed his firm.

Stan the Man

Of the lot, O'Neal deserves perhaps the greatest scorn as he took a business that wasn't well designed to take huge trading risks and wagered it all on a single bet.

He screwed up the lives of more innocent people than the others. But interestingly, if any of these men had behaved well and resisted the pressures and temptations of the moment, his firm would have, for several years, dramatically underperformed the competition. Probably he would have lost his job.

Even O'Neal can probably look back on his performance and say to himself, ``There's nothing I'd do different, given what I knew at the time.''

That's what they all say -- right before they're beheaded.

(Michael Lewis is a Bloomberg News columnist and the author, most recently, of ``The Blind Side.'' The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Michael Lewis at mlewis1@bloomberg.net

[dude]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZ2MYzLa83DU

SEC Stiffens Short-Selling Rules Amid Market Turmoil (Update3)

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission stiffened rules against manipulative short-selling after a market rout pushed American International Group Inc. to the brink of collapse and triggered Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s bankruptcy.

The SEC adopted two regulations today that may pressure traders and brokers to actually borrow shares used in all short sales, amid concern investors are driving down prices by flooding markets with sell orders. A third rule makes it a securities fraud when sellers deceive brokers about delivering borrowed shares to buyers.

``These several actions today make it crystal clear that the SEC has zero tolerance for abusive'' short-selling, SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said in a statement on the rules that take effect tomorrow.

Lawmakers including U.S. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd and regulators say short sellers may have contributed to a crisis by spreading false information and using abusive tactics to attack companies. Hedge funds and other investors argue that poor business strategies are to blame, not short sellers.

Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm, fell as much as 44 percent in New York trading today, and Chief Executive Officer John Mack told employees in a memo ``short sellers are driving our stock down.''

Mack said he has contacted Cox and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The SEC is holding meetings today to discuss whether it needs to take further steps to curtail short-selling, CNBC reported.

[dude]

:lol: CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX#symbol=^VIX;range=1y

[cusip]

чоза прикол перепечатывать новости?

заведи себе РСС и кому делать нехуй подпишуца

[dude]

cusip писал(а): чоза прикол перепечатывать новости?

заведи себе РСС и кому делать нехуй подпишуца

куцып, я уже тебе говорил - мне нравится "перепечатывать" (мля, cut'n'paste не пробовал?) новости. Не нравится - не читай.

[JustVisiting]

:kalbasa: :hm: dude писал(а):
...The people who work for the place -- especially the ones who call the shots -- have for years had a disconcerting habit of leaving their low-paying government jobs...

...It's hard for people who are paid $85,000 a year to police people who are paid $15 million...

[cusip]

мне нравица высказат; критику по поводу такой идиоцкой практики перепечатывания новостей. буду продолжать

[dude]

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200810101629DOWJONESDJONLINE000886_FORTUNE5.htm

With Market Declines, Investors Face Margin Calls

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- With the stock market reeling, many investors who bought stocks on margin are facing a tough choice: double down or cut their losses.

"The maintenance calls are coming quicker and harder than ever before," says a Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) broker, responding to seemingly stricter-than-usual demands from Merrill for investors to pony up money to backstop margin loans.

---

Investors that buy stock on margin - with money borrowed from a brokerage house - can magnify returns if their bets turn out well. If stocks fall, however, losses can quickly pile up.

Brokerage firms typically require investors to keep a certain level of collateral in their accounts. A sharply declining market can hit investors two ways: As stocks fall in value, their collateral shrinks below the prescribed threshold, or brokerage firms themselves get nervous and tighten those thresholds. The recent climate has seen instances of both.

[Serg1]

dude писал(а): With Market Declines, Investors Face Margin Calls
Пусть закаляются - то ли еще будет.

[Serg1]

http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/20081010142043.shtml
Цитата: - IPE Brent Crude (ноябрь) - 77,90 (-4,76) при диапазоне котировок 77,29-80,55;
- Light, Sweet Crude Oil (ноябрь) - 81,65 (-4,94) при диапазоне котировок 81,13-85,13.
У нас уже 3.20.

[dude]

- Итак, в вашем резюме вы пишете, что были пианистом в борделе.

- Хмм, вообще-то я был банкиром... но я не очень хотел бы это афишировать.

***

Полшестого утра.

Встречаются два дворника.

Один на другого долго так смотрит и вдруг говорит:

- У вас такое лицо знакомое...

а второй в ответ:

- ...А вы в каком банке работали?

***

В период кризиса звонит один банкир другому:

- Ну, как ты там? Как спишь?

- Да ничего... Сплю, как ребенок...

- Это как?

- Сегодня всю ночь плакал и два раза обгадился.

***

Один брокер спрашивает другого:

- Мужик, а ты вообще кто: "бык" или "медведь"?

- Да козел я!

***

Брокер Джон Смит, выпрыгнувший из окна 75-го этажа на Уолл Стрит, после удара о землю подпрыгнул на 10 метров, чем немного отыграл свое утреннее падение...

***

- Тук-тук-тук...

- Кто там?

- Это мы, топ-менеджеры!

- Идите к черту!

- Топ-топ-топ...

***

Он шел по улице, и что-то неуловимое выдавало в нем топ-менеджера: то ли высокий лоб и внимательные глаза... То ли отличный костюм и дорогие ботинки... То ли золотой парашют, волочащийся за спиной...

***

Вчера Нобелевскую премию по экономике получил американский профессор за развитие теории глобализации, позволившей на практике сделать американский финансовый кризис всемирным.

***

Физики что-то не рассчитали - Коллайдер построили в Швейцарии, а черная дыра образовалась на Уолл Стрит.

***

Ипотека - это все яйца в одной корзине, причем за эти яйца вас держит банк.

***

Кризис - хуже развода. Вы лишаетесь половины денег, но сохраняете жену.

***

Только что сообщили, что на межбанковском рынке возобновлены операции с РЕПО. Килограмм РЕПО меняется на 2 кило БРЮКВО или полтора кило КАРТО урожая предыдущего года.

[Serg1]

http://obskurant.livejournal.com/134163.html

[Serg1]

Цитата: Нефть Brent (ICE) 59.95 -0.88%

[Serg1]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5PrXcWxGKQ0
U.S. Auto Sales Fall 32% to Lowest Total in 17 Years (Update3)
Цитата: U.S. auto sales in October plunged an estimated 31% to about 850,000 vehicles ... It was the first time since February 1993 that auto makers sold fewer than 900,000 cars and light trucks in a month. When adjusted for increases in the U.S. population, October was "the worst month in the post-World War II era," Michael DiGiovanni, the top sales analyst at General Motors Corp., said in an conference call. "This is clearly a severe, severe recession." ... Auto executives warned the worst may still lie ahead ...



Кстати про кредит:
Цитата:
“GMAC Leaders and NAO Team:

In light of the disruption in the credit markets, GMAC NAO is announcing a temporary, more conservative purchase policy for retail auto contracts in the United States. In the short term, we will limit auto contracts to those consumers who have a minimum 700 credit bureau score, with an advance rate equal to or less than dealer invoice. This means that consumers will be required to make a down payment. In addition, we will restrict approval of contract terms beyond 60 months, except for those customers qualifying for GM-supported 72-month incentives currently advertised.

[Serg1]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/05/autos/auto_job_losses/index.htm

Цитата: If the Big Three carmakers were to cut U.S. operations by 50%, 2.5 million jobs could be lost in 2009, according to a study released Wednesday.

"If" уже излишен по результатам предыдущего поста.

[Serg1]

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jsanM66tszKz1zFq0LOG4XvWS7zAD949LG380

Цитата: Longer-term jobless benefits hit 25-year high

The Labor Department reported Thursday that the number of people continuing to draw unemployment benefits jumped by 122,000 to 3.84 million in late October, well above analysts' estimates of 3.74 million. That was the highest level since late February 1983, when the country was struggling to recover from a long and painful recession. The year-ago tally was 2.59 million people.





Код:
Highlights

    * 49,000 construction jobs were lost
    * 90,000 manufacturing jobs were lost
    * 38,000 retail trade jobs were lost
    * 108,000 service providing jobs were lost
    * 45,000 professional and business services jobs were lost
    * 21,000 education and health services jobs were added
    * 16,000 leisure and hospitality jobs were lost
    * 23,000 government jobs were added

[Serg1]

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/tech-slowdown.html

Investment in equipment and software

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SRNrtSIJRoI/AAAAAAAADu0/SjzUTsqziFY/s1600-h/InvestmentEquipmentQ308.jpg

[Tsuni]

у меня на работе объявили hiring freeze :(

[cusip]

вот как раз твой CPA и пригодица

[Serg1]

cusip писал(а): вот как раз твой CPA и пригодица
Так в Фаньке было - сначала фриз на 2 месяца - потом футболят.

[cusip]

в фаньке знать надо где работать. я там сидел почти 4 года и мог бы еще до ишачьей пасхи сидеть. да и щас там нанимают. но что верно, неопределенность с их будущим большая.

[gekkarp]

cusip писал(а): но что верно, неопределенность с их будущим большая.
так это в большинстве мест так на самом деле.
а если где человек и чуствует "опрделенность" - так это иллюзия на самом деле.

[cusip]

степень неопределенности разная. бернанке предлагает обсудить что с ними делать дальше, разбить по частям или еще чего - не с любой фирмой такое происходит

[Serg1]

DICE сегодня 73,370 jobs - 20к за месяц or ~20%.

[Tsuni]

по и-мейлу получила (из универа):

Leaders+Legends
A new monthly lecture series

November 20

Chairman of the FDIC
Sheila Bair
Today's Credit Crisis and the Involvement
of the FDIC

Renaissance Harborplace Hotel
202 E. Pratt Street • Baltimore
7:30 – 8:00 AM Breakfast
8:00 – 9:00 AM Presentation and Q&A
Tickets $35
Registration: carey.jhu.edu/leadersandlegends

[Serg1]

Tsuni писал(а): November 20
Chairman of the FDIC
Sheila Bair
Today's Credit Crisis and the Involvement of the FDIC

Но с 15го он будет другим. :hm:

[cusip]

Serg1 писал(а): Tsuni писал(а): November 20
Chairman of the FDIC
Sheila Bair
Today's Credit Crisis and the Involvement of the FDIC

Но с 15го он будет другим. :hm:

он?!

[Serg1]

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

Цитата: This table from American Research Group shows the planned spending for each holiday season since 1998.

Year Average Spending Percent Change
2008 $431 -50%
2007 $859 -5%
2006 $907 -4%
2005 $942 -6%
2004 $1,004 +3%
2003 $976 -6%
2002 $1,037 -1%
2001 $1,052 + 9%
2000 $968 + 3%
1999 $939 + 1%
1998 $928 + 34%

[JustVisiting]

:umnik:
Цитата: Mark Cuban charged with insider trading
SEC charges Dallas Mavericks owner with insider trading related to sales of Mamma.com.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/17/news/newsmakers/cuban_insider_trading/

[gekkarp]

[JustVisiting]

[Serg1]

Сити того, катком переехало
11/21/08 At 1:28PM ET: 3.76 Down 0.95 (20.17%)
Цитата: Executives at Citigroup Inc., faced with a plunging stock price, began weighing the possibility of auctioning off pieces of the financial giant or even selling the company outright, according to people familiar with the matter.

[Вита]

А у нас в tax нанимают, как не в себе, 5-й office visit для кандидатов уже назначили. Ожидают, что Обама вскоре перепишет всё налоговое законодательство, и нас на несколько лет работой завалит. Так что вот такая профессия будущего оказалась.

[Serg1]

Они бы больше таксов собрали если бы все упростили.

[Вита]

Serg1 писал(а): Они бы больше таксов собрали если бы все упростили. это еще почему?

[Tsuni]

Вита писал(а): А у нас в тах нанимают, как не в себе, 5-й оффице висит для кандидатов уже назначили. Ожидают, что Обама вскоре перепишет всё налоговое законодательство, и нас на несколько лет работой завалит. Так что вот такая профессия будущего оказалась.

а ещё через пару лет паблик компании перейдут на международную систему, тогда уж точно работы будет навалом, только вот учить всё это надо будет :mrgreen:

[Serg1]

Вита писал(а): Serg1 писал(а): Они бы больше таксов собрали если бы все упростили. это еще почему? 1/3 не платят.

[Serg1]

Это опечатка?
http://www.rbcdaily.ru/2008/11/21/world/391347
Цитата: Проблемам грузоперевозок на этой неделе была посвящена специальная конференция в Лондоне, организованная клиринговой палатой морских грузо­перевозок Baltic Exchange. Участники встречи выразили беспокойство, что средняя цена фрахта крупнотоннажного судна снизилась с 233,9 тыс. долл. в день в июне до 3,6 тыс. долл. в ноябре. В числе наиболее пострадавших оказались азиатские компании, специализировавшиеся на доставке сырья и грузов в Европу и США.

[dude]

Serg1 писал(а): Это опечатка?
http://www.rbcdaily.ru/2008/11/21/world/391347
Цитата: Проблемам грузоперевозок на этой неделе была посвящена специальная конференция в Лондоне, организованная клиринговой палатой морских грузо­перевозок Baltic Exchange. Участники встречи выразили беспокойство, что средняя цена фрахта крупнотоннажного судна снизилась с 233,9 тыс. долл. в день в июне до 3,6 тыс. долл. в ноябре. В числе наиболее пострадавших оказались азиатские компании, специализировавшиеся на доставке сырья и грузов в Европу и США.

Похоже правда. BDI (Baltic Dry Index) в июне был 11700 а сейчас 850. Т.е. упал на 93%

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BDI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55074137059

[Serg1]

Next 3 Failed Banks
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

Bank Name Closing Date
PFF Bank and Trust, Pomona, CA November 21, 2008
Downey Savings and Loan, Newport Beach, CA November 21, 2008
The Community Bank, Loganville, GA November 21, 2008

[Tsuni]

я на днях обнаружила, что FDIC временно увеличили страховку до $250K

[WldCrd]

Tsuni писал(а): я на днях обнаружила, что FDIC временно увеличили страховку до $250K Уже давно, с самого начала кризиса они это первом делом сделали. Не помогло. Хотя может помогло, что народ не бросился деньги из банков забирать.

[Serg1]

Tsuni писал(а): я на днях обнаружила, что FDIC временно увеличили страховку до $250K
Тсуни видная невеста.

[Tsuni]

какая я нафиг невеста? всё никак не разведусь :x

[Serg1]

Тсуни пока не невеста. :umnik:

[JustVisiting]

Serg1 писал(а): Tsuni писал(а): я на днях обнаружила, что FDIC временно увеличили страховку до $250K
Тсуни видная невеста.
Если б Тсуни имела $250К, она была бы WildCard (по ноледжу).

[Serg1]

JustVisiting писал(а): Serg1 писал(а): Tsuni писал(а): я на днях обнаружила, что FDIC временно увеличили страховку до $250K
Тсуни видная невеста.
Если б Тсуни имела $250К, она была бы WildCard (по ноледжу).
У тебя мало знакомых которые стайтменты даже не вскрывают.

[Tsuni]

я не вскрываю :hm:

[size]

WldCrd писал(а): Tsuni писал(а): я на днях обнаружила, что FDIC временно увеличили страховку до $250K Уже давно, с самого начала кризиса они это первом делом сделали. Не помогло. Хотя может помогло, что народ не бросился деньги из банков забирать.

чекинг аккаунты гарантированы на полную сумму, если банк участвует в fdic's temporary liquidity guarantee program. олигархи, цео, и инфосеки с миллиардными депозитам могут спать спокойно. хай тсуни